1.Lebanon has been running increasing budget deficits since 2011, at annual averages of $4.175Bn and (-)9% of GDP, financed by public debt; The already high budget deficit has deteriorated to 13.7% of GDP in 2019
2.The current account deficit increased to represent 20.6% of GDP in 2019
3.Gross Public Debt reached $91.64Bn in 2019 at 156% of GDP, with 37% in USD; and 144.6 trillion LL in January 2021, double what it was in 2011
4.The Central Bank (BdL) and commercial banks hold around 58% of Foreign Debt
5.The annual average Debt service to revenues ratio since 2011 is at 43%, and peaked around 50% in 2019
6.Transfers to EDL and Personnel Expenses reached total amounts of around $15Bn, and $30Bn respectively over the 2011-2020 period
7.Over the 6M-2020 period, total revenues declined by 19.8% year-on-year (yoy), driven by 49.8, 44.4 and 32.4% (yoy) decreases in VAT, telecoms and customs revenues, respectively
8.Total expenditures over 8M-2020 have also de-creased by 18.4%. This, however, is almost exclusively due to cuts in interest payments resulting from the March 2020 Eurobond default and a favorable arrangement with BdL on TBs it holds
9.As of 2016, deficits were increasingly financed by the BdL, using stimulus packages and unorthodox financial engineering operations, made possible by the billions of dollars deposited into Lebanese banks by the large diaspora
10.By March 2020, before Lebanon defaulted on paying back holders of a USD1.2 billion Eurobond, its public debt had reached more than 170% of GDP. By end-2020, the debt-to-GDP ratio was projected to reach 194%. This figure was calculated based on the official rate of 1,507,5. It’s worth noting that the Debt/GDP ratio has since skyrocketed due to the depreciation of the lira and exceeds 275% (based on the IMF GDP estimation for 2020)
11.Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 20.3% in 2020, versus 6.7% in 2019. When measured in USD, the Lebanese economy may end up shrinking from $55 bn in 2019 to $33 bn in 2020. The World Bank projects real GDP to contract by a further 9.5% in 2021
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